So when you're looking at NEP, it's important to look at the numbers based on position. Quarterbacks can be in the middle, either positive or negative: completions typically help their score, while incompletions lower it. Receivers and tight ends, meanwhile, will usually have high, positive NEP per play scores, since receivers don't touch the ball unless it's a high-yardage completion. Since passing is often more efficient than running the ball, you'll usually see running backs with negative NEP per play scores, meaning that they are losing their team expected points every time they touch the ball. Jamaal Charles then gets credit for the difference, in this case 2.96 points, as his NEP total. However, Jamaal Charles reels off a 32-yard run to bring the Chiefs into the red zone, increasing the "expected" point value of the next play to 4.23 (still an estimated number) points. According to our data, an average team may be "expected" to score 1.23 (estimated number) points on that drive. That's a ton of variables, but luckily, numberFire has data from the past dozen years of every single play, so most situations have come up at least once. For example, the Chiefs may be facing the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a third-and-two on the 50-yard line. Instead, we use a complex mathematical formula combined with an advanced algorithm for factoring in situational variables to get a much clearer and more accurate sense of performance.Įxpected Points/Net Expected Points (NEP)Įvery single situation on the football field has an expected point value that is, how many points an average team would be expected to score in that situation (given down, distance-to-go, and yard line). Unlike most systems for evaluating players, we don’t depend on simplified statistics like passing yards or batting average, which are prone toīiases. Our formula for deriving these ratings produces a truly accurate picture of performance. This algorithm is derived straight from the game data, which we analyze to create our efficiency ratings, typically labeled nERD (numberFire Efficiency Rating Derivative). Which players and teams are performing the best. One of the two main algorithms that drive our insights is our efficiency algorithm, which helps us understand
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